This is stolen text and I don't think it should be seen by the public here (and hopefully not there!) -
CheeZeQUOTE
Wow.....some of the posters on these boards are waaaayyyyyy out there.
Now I have read the other posts on these boards regarding the "bird flu" and the conspiracy theories are flying and everyone has an opinion.
I dont have links, and and I can not back up my claims on this post. But some common sense is required when we are talking about a potentially deadly disease that could inflict a lot of trajedy upon the global human population.
If anyone wants to doubt my claims, then all they have to do is some research. First..all types of flu or influenza, originally come from birds. Every type of flu that we have all endured in the past is a bird flu that has made the jump from bird to human direct transmission to, human to human airborne transmission.
So far the current Avian Flu, the one that if you touch a sick chicken you will get sick and die, that one has not made the jump to a human to human transmission.
ABC aired a movie on the bird flu last evening. It was considered fiction because at this point it is. Afterwards, ABC's news program, Nightline dedicated it's entire format to this issue and whether the movie was fact or fiction.
I have been researching this developing bird flu for sometime now. What I found most interesting on the Nightline program is what I felt compelled to relay to you what was said.
The movie's ground zero is the State of Virginia...and so Nightline had the real Govenor of Virginia on. He wouldnt answer how much Tamiflu they have stockpiled. The US Governments Director of Health and Human Services was also on and he stated that the best minds working on this agree (and I am not quoting, I am paraphase at best) that in the worst case, 5% lost of life.
Also they had the head of the grocery council on Nightline. (In the movie it depicts stores running out of supplies and just total end of the world chaos). This gentleman stated on Nightline that (and again I am paraphrasing) that in a worst case scenario, the food industry would be able to adapt, perhaps more home delivery or something like that, and that there is not reason to go out to the store and start major stockpiling foods now. However he did go on to say that minor stockpiling now maybe a good idea.
I am not going to slander these guys. I believe that they feel they are acting in our best interests, and they probably know more than me. And I am probably way off on this.
But facts are facts. The whole reason this particular strain of bird flu is an issue at all is that when it does make the human to human airborne mutation, humans will be exposed to something we have never had before. This is not the 1917 Spanish flu reborn, as some have suggested. We have anitbodies in our immune systems for that..So even if the Government was trying to make it a weapon, the worst they could do would be to give us all headaches.
No, this new bird flu is a brand new monster, just waiting to get out. It may very well be that only 5% of us will die when it makes that jump. But since no human on earth will have a natural antibody for it in thier own personal immune systems, it seeems only logical to presume that a lot more than 5% would die.
Also when the head grocery guy tells us that it might not be a bad idea to start light stockpiling, that is a red flag as well.
I am not trying to cause a panic, but there is a lot of blaise attitudes towards this flu. Example....well our Goverment is making a vaccine for this. And yes, right now they are. That vaccine will protect us if we touch our sick parakeets. However that vaccine will not protect us from a disease that hasnt yet occured. In other words once, the bird flu has mutated into human to human airborne transmission, the vaccine they are working on now, will be useless because it will no longer be the same disease.
It may also help if people understand how that mutation will probably occur; So here goes:
Somewhere in the world, a sick worker stricken with the garden variety flu goes to work. He works with birds. Could be at a poultry plant, maybe at an open air market place, perhaps a zoo, pet store, whatever. This employee unknowingly comes in direct contact with a sick bird who has this bird flu virus. The virus is passed to the worker. The virus then enters into his bloodstream and meets up with his long lost relative, the old garden variety flu. After they do some catching up on the family and so forth, they decide to get together for a little virus quickie, and next thing you know we now have a mutated bird flu that can pass from human to human. Our poor worker, completely unaware, goes home, kisses his kids goodnight, kisses his wife goodnight, and the next day they all go do their things, spreading the disease.
Since none of us have the natural immunity to this newly mutated disease, it will spread thru the human population like a match to dry kindling.
I think the 5% death rate will be very low.
I also think that the reason the Govt is taking this position is to not spread panic.
And, like I said at the beginning, I could be full of it, as I am not the smartest man on Earth, and I am no way involved with this. I just feel that for my families safety I had to do the research to get the real answers.
The grocery dude is right. There is no reason to panic stockpile now. However I am going to start by buying an extra item of non-perishable food and maybe an extra gallon of water from time to time. And I am also going to get rubber gloves and hospital grade masks and some OTC flu meds. And that is all I am going to do for now. There is nothing else we can do. You can't go out and buy Tamiflu, so the goal is to survive long enough for a true vaccine to be developed and distributed.
They will not be able to develop a vaccine for the mutated human to human virus until it is out there killing people. You can't create a vaccine for something that doesnt exist yet. Once..the virus has mutated approx 4-6 months before they have a vaccine. And approx 2-3 years before enough is made and distributed to every person in the USA.
You will not be able to rely on the Federal Govt to help you. It was also stated on Nightline that local communities need to take charge of their own citizens in helping them. That is correct. I will trust my families survival to my own judgement and not someone elses.
These are just some thoughts I felt compelled to share.
http://www.armageddononline.org/forums/sho...ead.php?p=97986