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Staredit Network -> Serious Discussion -> Iran's new ally
Report, edit, etc...Posted by Pineapple on 2005-07-25 at 16:51:07
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It was a car bomb outside a hotel near the BBC office. Several people were killed.

For an hour afterwards, men were still firing into the air - sometimes to clear a path for the ambulances taking the injured to hospital.

Soon afterwards there was another explosion, further away. More deaths, more injuries, more shooting. There is nothing unusual about any of this.

Six months after the election to the National Assembly in January, the daily slaughter is part of everyday life.

If you recall, the election was the great achievement which was to put Iraq back into Iraqi hands, and improve the security situation.

When I call it a great achievement, I am not being snide. The election was indeed magnificent.

Shia vote

I was here when it took place, and I shall never forget the tears of joy rolling down the cheeks of an Iraqi friend of mine, as he held up his index finger to show me the purple mark which indicated that he had voted.

There were tears in my own eyes, I confess. I have reported on this country and its brave and decent people for a quarter of a century, and watching them exercise the basic right of free men and women was unforgettable.

But my friend was a Shia and, like the Kurds of Iraq, the Shia had every reason to brave the dangers of the day and vote.

For the Kurds, the election would bring a huge degree of self-rule.

For the Shia, something like 60% of Iraq's population, it would bring political dominance in Iraq at long last.

But the most important thing about the election was not the number of Kurds and Shia who voted. It was the number of Sunni Muslims.

The Sunnis, Saddam Hussein's own people, had long ruled Iraq, even though they are a clear minority. The overthrow of Saddam and the January election brought their reign to an end.

Some Sunnis, with praiseworthy courage, did turn out to vote but there were not very many of them. Ever since, the Sunni community has been a disenfranchised, resentful, embittered minority.

Six months ago it was already the heart of the resistance movement to the Coalition. Now, that movement is almost exclusively Sunni.

Iranian gains

So, after six months, who have the winners been? The Kurds, who now have an unprecedented amount of control over their own affairs. The Shia, of course, who form the bulk of the new government.

And there is another winner, too - one which the Americans can scarcely be very happy about.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq's next-door neighbour, has benefited in every way from President George W Bush's decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

It is probably the best thing that has happened to Iran since the Islamic Revolution there in 1979.

Iran has seen its sworn enemy, Saddam, removed from power. And it has seen the arrival in power in Baghdad of pro-Iranian Shia politicians like the prime minister himself, Ibrahim Jaafari.

Mr Jaafari was given asylum for many years in Iran and has much to be grateful to its fundamentalist Shia government for.

He and several of his ministers went to Tehran last week, and reached all sorts of new economic, political and military agreements and understandings with Iran.

European critics of the American-led invasion used to accuse President Bush of wanting to create an American colony in the Middle East. Instead, the January election has turned Iraq into Iran's closest ally.

And, contrary to American expectations, Iran has so far had a calming effect on the situation inside Iraq.

Sunni boycott

It has used all its efforts to encourage the Iraqi Shia religious leader, Ayatollah Sistani, to keep on urging Iraqi Shia not to retaliate for the blatantly sectarian attacks which Sunni insurgents have been carrying out against them.

The strong hope on the American and British side was that the elections six months ago would bring a gradual end to the bombings and murders here by giving people their own government.

For a few weeks the strategy seemed to work. The number of attacks fell, and there was a real, if faint, hope of peace.

It came to nothing, because the Sunni politicians, having mostly boycotted the election, mostly stayed out of the political process. They faced the very real threat of murder if they joined it.

The politicians failed to agree among themselves, and it took so long to form a government that the small window of opportunity was very firmly shut again.

Now the security situation is worse than ever.

The other day I went to see a leading government figure who is always remarkably upbeat about the future.

"What do you really think?" I asked him.

"I think the genie's out of the bottle here," he said, "and we don't know how to get him back inside."

The key issue was the decision of so many Sunnis not to vote six months ago.

They are the genie, and as long as they stay out of the bottle the bombs will continue to explode.

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Report, edit, etc...Posted by Felagund on 2005-07-25 at 18:48:19
Can you... actually use the
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quote?


Oh, and providing a link is always appreciated.
Report, edit, etc...Posted by Pineapple on 2005-07-25 at 19:08:16
I can sware I quoted it disgust.gif ... There it's a quote now, Happy?
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